June 20, 2008
Good News on Terror?
For years, opponents of the "War on Terror" and "Invasion of Iraq" have argued that these moves backfired by causing an increase in terrorism. I always suspected that this was skewed, by counting the resistance activity in Iraq, insurgents and militants, as terrorist acts. I asked a number of people if this were the case, but never got a straight answer. If so, that would be like saying incidents of illegal drug use increased in areas that hosted a Grateful Dead Concert. That might be true, but it would not be part of a trend. It now appears my suspicions were correct.
A recent study has challenged the prevailing view that Global Terrorism is on the increase. Researchers with Human Security Report Project (HSRP) reviewed data from three USA based sources -- the National Counter Terrorism Center, the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, and the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. All of those studies showed an upward trend in terrorism.
However, HSRP Director Andrew Mack maintains that these results are skewed by counting civilian casualties in the Iraq War as incidents of terrorism. Mack noted that civilian deaths in similar civil wars, those in Africa, were not considered terrorism. James Ellis, research and program director at MIPT, admitted to Reuters. "It [Iraq] has had a distortion effect."
Normally speaking when we talk about civilians being killed
in civil wars we use the terms war crimes or crimes against humanity
or even genocide. We don't normally call them terrorism. However,
if you want to you can, but if you are going to do that
then you have to do it consistently."
"And the problem with two of the data sets that go back to
1998 is that they don't do this consistently. They're counting
very large numbers of civilians killed in Iraq terrorism, but
when we look at sub-Sahara Africa's many civil wars, which
kill lots and lots of civilians, they're counting very, very few
of these. And the consequence is that you have a distorted data."
-- Andrew Mack
The HSRP reports indicates that even if questionable Iraq data is included, "there has still been a substantial decline in the global terrorism toll ... global terrorism fatalities declined by 40 percent between July and September 2007, driven by a 55 percent decline in the "terrorism" death toll in Iraq after the so-called surge of new U.S. troops and a cease-fire by the Shi'ite militant Mehdi Army"
Key points of the report:
- Fatalities from terrorism have declined,
- There has been a dramatic decline in support for al-Qaeda throughout the Muslim world.
- There has been an "extraordinary, but largely unnoticed, positive change" in sub-Saharan Africa -- the number of conflicts fell by more than half between 1999 and 2006 -- casualties there declined by 98 per cent.
- A reduction in armed conflicts and combat deaths, noted in an earlier study, also continues.
I was curious as to any reasons why AQ's popularity is declining, I managed to pick up a few bits and pieces:
- A rejection of AQ's "gratuitous and indiscriminate violence against their co-religionists."
- A rejection among Muslims of ' "indiscriminate violence, extremist ideology and harshly repressive policies."
- Widespread and better coordinated counter terrorism efforts.
"By deeply alienating the very publics whose support is critical to their cause, the Islamists have become their own worst enemies and created conditions that will likely bring about their eventual demise," said Mack. [The] strategic implications are critically important, because historical evidence suggests that terrorist campaigns that lose public support will sooner or later be abandoned or defeated."
After reading up on this study, I began to worry about Mr. Mack's reputation. I mentioned to my wife that I hope he is a saint, because I suspect he was about to be viscously smeared by our friends in the left - green web movement. I mean, is Mack accepting funding from US Defense Contractors, "Big Oil," or, even worse, "Big Tobacco?" Just what is this "Human Security Report Project (HSRP)" Are they some sort of wing nut foundation, or perhaps a CFR front?
It turns out that HSRP is part of the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University [sfu] at Vancouver BC. Andrew Mack has an impressive resume. He was once head of the The Peace Research Center at the Australian National University. I came across this little snippet:
"Even before its birth, the proposed centre was the target of attacks from right-wing opponents. These attacks escalated in intensity and viciousness after the appointment of Andrew Mack as the head of the Centre. The critics claimed that peace research was vacuous academically, that Mack was an apologist for communist militarism, and generally that peace research was a dangerous and subversive activity, constituting little more than peace movement ideology in academic guise."
So, before attempting to slime this guy as some kind of puppet of the right fascist big oil defense contractor oligopoly, folks should stfu and do some fact checking.
- Directed the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia where the Project was located until its move to Simon Fraser University in May 2007.
- Visiting professor at the Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research at Harvard University (2001)
- Director of the Strategic Planning Unit in the Executive Office of Secretary General Kofi Annan at the United Nations (1998–2001).
- Chair in International Relations at the Institute of Advanced Study at the Australian National University (ANU) (1991 - 1998),
- Director of the ANU's Peace Research Centre (1985 - 1991)
- Senior Research Fellow at ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (1984/85).
More om his resume: Link
Sources:
Report Challenges Orthodoxy on Global Terror
Global Terrorism in Sharp Decline
Is global terror threat falling?
Study finds global terrorism on the decline
Iraq figures distort terrorism statistics: study
Posted by rbeck at June 20, 2008 03:35 AM