Holte's corner

Ending human terror

Bruce Hoffman in his editorial today maintains that, and I think most people agree that:

1.  First, "al-Qaeda is increasingly focused on overwhelming, distracting and exhausting us."

2.  Second, "al-Qaeda [is using]....a strategy of economic warfare."

3.  Third, "al-Qaeda is ....[seeking] to create divisions within the global alliance ... by targeting key coalition partners."

4.  Fourth, "al-Qaeda is aggressively seeking out, destabilizing and exploiting failed states and other areas of lawlessness."

5.  Fifth, ...."al-Qaeda is covetously seeking recruits from non-Muslim countries"

Source:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/08/AR2010010803555.html

The only problem with Bruce's analysis is that he presents all the above as something new, which it isn't. But I'm not interested in arguing with neo-cons. I'm interested in some kind of analysis which might lead to solving problems and improving the general human condition, long and short term. The question is, what do these five things tell us? The above list makes a good jumping off point. Lets see if we can solve his problems.

Overwhelming, distracting and exhausting us.

To fight off people out to destroy one, one needs perseverance and courage. To resist Al Qaeda we need to be focused on clear-cut goal. That will let us not be distracted by either acts of terror, or by inattention. Defending the United States at all points is a hopeless cause. There is no possible way to eliminate all risk. But one fights hatred best with mindfulness. If religious extremists want to overwhelm and distract, let them try. Meanwhile we individually and collectively should go about the daily business of having compassion for human beings, even their captured warriors, and cultivating the attributes that it takes for us to live as fully realized human beings anyway; kindness, compassion, dedication to cultivating, practicing, and perfecting the skills each of us needs to fully perform and contribute to our own individual good and the common good. We do that and we amaze, ovewhelm and befuddle those seeking to overwhelm, distract and exhaust us. Focusing on one's "bliss," or best path, is a sure way to do that.

....a strategy of economic warfare.

Economic warfare is possible because people exchange things, and people let others lie and cheat to steal things. The best way to stop groups with perverse goals is to chop them at their knees by conducting honest business and being mindful when others are trying to cheat or steal. By luring us into the war in Afghanistan we are spending a million dollars a soldier, and fighting each other instead of the enemy to spend that money. To beat this enemy, we should recognize that they are only an enemy because a; we are in commerce with the people they live among; and b; we need Saudi oil. The best way to fight their economic warfare would be to build up our own economy, take care of our own citizens, and also build up our own economic independence. But of course we aren't doing that, we are busy creating a complex and ill defined mission in Afghanistan that violates OCCAMS razor (is way too complex), has a long supply line, and involves doubtful goals and outside dependencies. To win the economic warfare being waged by Al Qaeda, we need to consider that getting bogged down in Afghanistan is just what they planned for us; "Rope a Dope" as Mohammed Ali used to say -- with us as the dopes. To win in Afghanistan we probably need to lower our expectations and try to build just enough of a stable Afghanistan so we can leave without our last man having a crease in his helmet.

....[seeking] to create divisions within the global alliance ...

Al Qaeda dreams of the Calliphate. It's a nice dream if one idealizes what the Caliphate was and forgets that the Calliphs were mostly iron fisted despots, and often corrupt to boot. There was a reason that Baghdad fell to the Mongols. It was called corruption. There is a reason that every attempt at imperialism or empire building before or since that time has failed. Each attempt involves building a gold head at the top (where all the gold goes), silver shoulders, and subsequent layers of bronze, Iron and clay; none of which can stand very long because the builders always neglect that their efforts remain efforts with feet of clay. We are all fallible, and none of us is fit to rule the others, so we might as well face it that the USA is best off without following that miserable route -- though we've already walked a ways down it.

The USA is at its best when it remains a mostly capitalist, trading nation, with the willingness to invest in people and places. To beat Taliban at their game, the USA should concentrate on peace building and commerce building. That doesn't require us to keep troops there. But it does involve finding ways to bring the Afghans into the World Economy. Right now we can't even find an alternative crop for the Afghans because our Southern Growers don't want them growing Cotton. Burning Poppy fields is counter-productive. What can we do? Well we can't do it. But we can partner with others to develop the place, build roads, hospitals and police stations, train their police, and then withdraw our troops. Then maybe, just maybe we can pull it off. Right now I give us a 50/50 chance of doing it and a good chance that Americans will do even stupider if we don't find a way of increasing the odds.

When it comes to building alliances we are usually our own worse enemy.

... aggressively seeking out, destabilizing and exploiting failed states and other areas of lawlessness.

We've helped with this. This is where the Al Qaeda are most unforgivable. Islamic extremism mostly ruins Islamic states the way Christianity ruined the Roman Empire. You can't burn libraries and librarians without putting a cost on the next generation. The three most effective forms of investments (proven) are education, health care, and infrastructure. Markets have to be built. Roads have to connect them. Stable banks have to process trades. A free market system is useless without a commons for people to meet and trade in. When warlords, landlords, and corporate barons band together to create a mafia it hurts the common folks even more than the rich and wealthy who can usually bribe their way to adecent living or emigrate. Afghanistan is a failed state because it is out of the way, and also because the US, Britain, Russia, and other countries decided to use it as a battleground and have sabotaged efforts by Afghans to improve their lives. It doesn't have to be so. Sure this has been a miserable truth since the Arabs, Mongols, Tamurlane, and Persians swept into its valleys with swords. But at one time Afghanistan was a prosperous place. The Statues of the Buddha there prove that. The best thing the US could do for Afghanistan would be to rebuild the silk road.

...seeking recruits from non-Muslim countries

The best way to deal with that is to work with moslems to make sure that they market a less radical version of Islam, while clearly showing alternatives. People are attracted to Islam because it makes more sense on some subjects than Christianity does. Is easier to practice than Buddhism, and because Judaism is tribal. Improve the alternatives and Islam is less attractive. Improve Islam and it doesn't matter so much. It is a crying shame that Wahabi Islam is being proselytized and bankrolled by the Saudis. They are basically fighting both sides of the war Bin Ladin is waging. To fight this, need better training for Moslems, and better information about Islam for non-Moslems so they can't lie to us. I've spent some time with syncretists, and am impressed with Sufism. Give me heretics! and people who question authoritarians.