Holte's corner

Having the Confidence to do the Right thing

I posted the other day to Daniel Pipe's Blog http://www.fraughtwithperil.com/blogs/holte/archives/001115.html, I don't think his premise that one shouldn't "negotiate" with terrorists, or that being a hard ass is necessarily the best way to go about bringing peace in the world or settling conflicts. I didn't say that much I just quoted a few things I've read and agree with. My post took a while to show up, but I'm gratified that it did.

I've been having a battle with one of my, ordinarily, favorite hosts, Randi Rhodes. She's been shopping the conspiracy theory that Israel is causing all the trouble in the middle east because of her over-reaction to Hezbollah rockets. She thinks that Olmert is being played by the Israeli version of the Neo-Cons. For a while I bought her arguments. But as I noted in the post "between a rock and a hard place" Israel cannot gain much by tangling with Hezbollah.

Instead I have to accept the arguments of cooler heads who suggest that the mess there has been fomented by Hezbollah, which has a lot to gain by tangling with Israel, by Syria and by Iran. The US could be contributing. I wouldn't put it past the Cheney crowd to sell Israel defective 'smart bombs', they wouldn't have to do it on purpose. More likely the excesses of Israel can be chalked up to no-win strategy. They used air-war because it saved their own soldier's lives. Air War leads to attrocities. It can't be helped. You try hitting a target from 50,000 feet and see how well you do.

So in this case I have to disagree with Randi Rhodes. For all the suffering Hezbollah has brought on themselves, they are the ones with the most to gain from instability. And if the red cross says there is no evidence of rockets in Qanaa, that doesn't make it so [doesn't make it not so either]. In either case you can't chalk it up to people causing suffering just to cause suffering. She gives the US and Israel too much credit for accuracy.

In today's Post David Ignatius is trying to spin that somehow this war might have a silver lining by noting the similarities to 1973. I think all his arguments, absent the spin, sound gloomy. There are vast differences in the dynamics. For all the public hatred of Israel in 1973, the leaders of the Arab world were privately sympathetic and feared Islamo-fascism more than they did Israel. Sadat paid with his life for seeking peace, and any Arab who did so in the current day would do so too. And there is nobody in this administration with the courage to do the right thing, even in the machievelian fashion that Henry Kissinger played in 1973. Condi would probably want to if her leash wasn't so tight, but George Bush is too much of a fool to do the right thing. For him the "right thing" would be blowing Lebanon, Syria and Iran back into the stone age. And that is the opposite of the right thing.

The other change is that technology is favoring "light infantry" if modernly armed. As the sale of "Stingers" to the Afghans showed -- and the history of the AK-series guns shows -- small arms are changing the balance of power. And Hezbollah, by traiining its soldiers is teaching them to not "cut and run" when under fire and to fight professionally. This negates the advantage that fixed forces once held. For all the Propaganda, Hezbollah is a serious threat to Israel and one that won't go away even if Israel's army reaches the Litani river. Rockets are a future threat, because eventually they will be deadlier, more accurate and carry an even more lethal load. If the Arabs don't take the path of peace, than Israel will have to fight even harder and in a bloodier manner than it already is -- just to survive.

Still we can hope that somewhere in the Middle East are people who have the self-confidence to do the right thing. Who can say to themselves, "this is nuts. Israel is not worth all this hate. We hate them for all the wrong reasons. Instead of hating them for planting trees, we should be planting trees. Instead of hating them for having superior technology, we should have superior technology. Instead of wasting money on missiles, we should be doing constructive things like putting people into space or providing water, food and opportunity for our people. If we want to be seen as the "people of peace", then we should demonstrate that we are peaceful people."

The problelm is that their interpretation of their religion tells them that killing Jews is the right thing.

But of course that is asking too much. It's like asking the pseudo-fundamentalists I know to actually follow in the footsteps of Jesus instead of trying to kill others for having motes in their eyes. Still one can hope.

Posted by cholte at August 3, 2006 03:36 AM